2025

Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:52:01 +0000

Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:52

Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence

By: Jaroslav Tir, Shane P Singh, Xiaojun Li

Abstract:

Secessions are often understood to be inherently war-prone, perhaps because individuals have been found to strongly support governments using military force to defend their country's territorial integrity. To assess the extent to which individuals actually support using military force against co-citizens, in a survey experiment we randomly assign English and Welsh respondents to a control condition listing the United Kingdom's constituent countries and overseas territories or to a treatment scenario describing a unilateral Scottish secession. Asked about the extent to which they would support the use of military force to defend the U.K.'s territorial integrity, respondents are significantly more supportive of the use of force in the control condition. Further analyses reveal men to be more hawkish than women in the control condition, while the gender gap disappears in the Scotland condition, with men's attitudes significantly mollified. Nationalist respondents, meanwhile, are relatively supportive of the use of force regardless of treatment status. Our findings thus caution that the literature's argument about the war proneness of secessions may be overly reliant on post hoc government decisions rather than ex ante individual-level attitudes.

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Unequal Futures: Spatial Patterns of Environmental Injustice Across Three European Case Studies

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:38:27 +0000

Unequal Futures: Spatial Patterns of Environmental Injustice Across Three European Case Studies Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:38

Unequal Futures: Spatial Patterns of Environmental Injustice Across Three European Case Studies

By: Aine Santala, Steve Vanderheiden

Abstract:

“Sacrifice zones” is a term that has evolved to refer to sites of concentrated environmental hazards resulting from extractive forms of land use. Much of the current literature explores the establishment of such places in Latin America and the United States, where legacies of settler colonialism interact with extant patterns of socioeconomic inequality and sociopolitical marginalization, but what drives their creation in Europe? This study examines three cases (a Roma community in Sajokaza, Hungary, the Kallak mining project in Sami lands, and the Jadar Valley lithium mining project in Serbia) to offer a theoretical analysis of how sacrifice zones are identified and constructed along the peripheries of power. Exploring economic drivers and socio-political dynamics, this paper seeks to understand both the commonalities and differences between places and communities marked for ecological violence.

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The effect of democratic participation on public goods provision: evidence from local governments in Ukraine

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:01:34 +0000

The effect of democratic participation on public goods provision: evidence from local governments in Ukraine Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:01

The effect of democratic participation on public goods provision: evidence from local governments in Ukraine

By: Isha Banerjee, Paula Ganga, Nadiia Kasianenko, Aliaksei Miadzvedz, Sarah Wilson Sokhey, Steven Van De Laarschot

Abstract:

Amidst a pandemic and war, public service provision in Ukraine has been delivered primarily at the local level. In this paper, we examine how democratic participation has influenced local public goods provision in Ukraine. We argue that local-level political engagement boosts local commitments to providing public goods. Using the Comprehensive Repository of Hromada-Level Data in Ukraine, we find that higher turnout in the 2020 local elections is correlated with more spending on social protection and less spending on healthcare and education in 2022, even when controlling for a host of other demographic, political, social, fiscal, and war-related factors. The results are robust to a variety of different models. Our findings lend insight into the effects of democratic participation on public goods provision, highlighting the local arena that has been vital for Ukraine’s resilience and will be crucial for its rebuilding.

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The local and regional dimension of Ukraine’s resilience during Russia’s full-scale invasion: an introduction

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:59:45 +0000

The local and regional dimension of Ukraine’s resilience during Russia’s full-scale invasion: an introduction Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:59

The local and regional dimension of Ukraine’s resilience during Russia’s full-scale invasion: an introduction

By: Inna Melnykovska, Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Abstract:

This introduction explores Ukraine’s local and regional democratic resilience during Russia’s full-scale invasion. It highlights how civic agency, informal networks of local stakeholders, and decentralized governance have enabled communities to adapt, mobilize, and uphold democratic institutions and values under extreme conditions. Drawing on empirical evidence and theoretical insights, the special issue rethinks resilience as a dynamic, multi-dimensional process rooted in bottom-up agency, societal transformation, and institutional reform. It emphasizes the importance of civic engagement, local accountability, and collaborative governance in sustaining democratic functionality during crisis. Ukraine’s experience offers critical lessons for understanding how democracies can endure, adapt, and recover in the face of existential threats, contributing to broader debates on governance, crisis response, and democratic resilience.

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Welfare Nationalism in Europe and Russia: The Politics of 21st Century Exclusionary and Inclusionary Migrations by Linda J. Cook. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:57:49 +0000

Welfare Nationalism in Europe and Russia: The Politics of 21st Century Exclusionary and Inclusionary Migrations by Linda J. Cook. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024 Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:57

Welfare Nationalism in Europe and Russia: The Politics of 21st Century Exclusionary and Inclusionary Migrations by Linda J. Cook. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024

By: Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Abstract:

Why are countries increasingly excluding migrants from social protection systems designed to offer essential services in areas like healthcare, housing, and education? Linda J. Cook’s book tackles this important question. With richly descriptive case studies from a broad range of countries and cases over time, Welfare Nationalism in Europe and Russia helps us better understand how modern authoritarian and democratic states are responding to the challenges posed by mass migration.

Cook examines how six countries—the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Poland, and Russia—reacted to five waves of migration, including migrants from Central Asia to Russia in the 2000s, Central and East European migrants to the United Kingdom and other countries after EU expansion in 2004, migrants from the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) to Europe starting 2011, the limited resettlement of co-ethnic migrants in Poland and Russia in the 2000s, and Ukrainian migrants to Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Only the last two waves of migration resulted in rare inclusionary welfare state policies. The first three cases were characterized by increasingly common exclusionary policies in which receiving countries chose to restrict migrants’ access to a wide array of social services. Cook convincingly argues that welfare nationalism emerged because migration occurred amidst declining social protections and declining employment for citizens.

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Attending church encourages acceptance of atheists? Suppression effects in religion and politics research

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:09:19 +0000

Attending church encourages acceptance of atheists? Suppression effects in religion and politics research Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:09

Attending church encourages acceptance of atheists? Suppression effects in religion and politics research

By: Paul A Djupe, Amanda J Friesen, Andrew R Lewis, Anand E Sokhey, Jacob R Neiheisel, Zachary D Broeren, Ryan P Burge

Abstract:

A proliferation of religion variables presents opportunities for those studying religion and politics in the U.S. However, many studies in this growing subfield demonstrate the pitfalls of reporting the “independent” effects of variables without qualification. This is especially evident in work on Christian nationalism where researchers often make the claim that worship attendance promotes more pro-social or liberal outcomes, while Christian nationalism promotes more conservative and less pro-social outcomes. We demonstrate that this finding—and others like it—represents a new version of an old problem: a particular structure of relationships between variables that can induce sign switches based on suppression effects (Lenz and Sahn in Political Analysis 29(3):356–369, 2021). While we do not encourage skipping controls, some commonly reported results warrant caution. Researchers should generally avoid unconditional claims about attendance encouraging liberalism. We point a way forward that prioritizes theories of religious communication and encourages the careful examination of relationships via interactions.

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Judgement by Fire: The Rapid Anti-Democratic Turn of American Christian Nationalism

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:07:25 +0000

Judgement by Fire: The Rapid Anti-Democratic Turn of American Christian Nationalism Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:07

Judgement by Fire: The Rapid Anti-Democratic Turn of American Christian Nationalism

By: Paul A Djupe, Jacob R Neiheisel, Anand E Sokhey, Brooklyn E Walker

Abstract:

In this chapter, we draw on a range of data to document the interlocked forces promoting an assertive, anti-democratic Christian nationalism. Specifically, we address three dynamics that have quickly consumed and channelled conservative Christianity into supporting anti-democratic movements. First, the demography of American religion has been changing at a drastic rate with the rise of the religious ‘nones’; ‘nones’ have become the largest ‘religious’ group, while white Christian identifiers are aging and have decreased in size. Second, conservative Christians have sorted to the Republican Party such that there are few White evangelical Democrats, and any partisan opposition to Republicans has been vilified as evil. Third, despite a shrinking ability to win elections on the basis of conservative Christian dominance, radicalization has been used to maintain the coalition and inspire high levels of turnout – supporters have been urged to see the rotation of power as a threat, to understand democratic process as fundamentally flawed, and increasingly to view the political process through an apocalyptic lens

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Religion Is Sometimes Raced: Christian Nationalism as In-Group Protection

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:05:43 +0000

Religion Is Sometimes Raced: Christian Nationalism as In-Group Protection Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:05

Religion Is Sometimes Raced: Christian Nationalism as In-Group Protection

By: Brooklyn Walker, Paul A Djupe, Brian R Calfano, Andrew R Lewis, Anand E Sokhey

Abstract:

Popular narratives suggest that the effects of Christian nationalism should be more heavily concentrated among white Americans. The academic literature on Christian nationalism largely reflects this take, often asserting that it is effectively white Christian nationalism. We question such pronouncements, as they have come without systematic analysis across the broad range of issue areas needed to justify subgroup segmentations. Utilizing national oversamples of Black and Latino Christians (alongside white Christians), we assess the relationship between standard measures of Christian nationalism and attitudes toward policies that vary in their degree of racialization. Our findings qualify typical narratives: consistent with a theory of Christian nationalism as sacralized in-group protection, we find effects that diverge by racial groups on racialized issues but otherwise converge. We close by discussing the implications of these findings and offering suggestions for future work linking race with Christian nationalism.

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The Failure of the Contact Hypothesis—Exposure to Religious Diversity Conditions Apocalyptic Politics

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:03:47 +0000

The Failure of the Contact Hypothesis—Exposure to Religious Diversity Conditions Apocalyptic Politics Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:03

The Failure of the Contact Hypothesis—Exposure to Religious Diversity Conditions Apocalyptic Politics

By: Paul A Djupe, Anand E Sokhey, Jacob R Neiheisel, Andrew R Lewis

Abstract:

Background

The recent jump to study worldviews like apocalypticism and Christian nationalism has left open questions about the social role of religion in the production of prejudice and politics.

Objectives

We take up the longstanding finding that social contact across lines of difference can tamp down prejudice, especially when such contact is goal-driven. Specifically, we ask if this relationship holds in the context of apocalyptics– individuals who see the other side as evil, spiritual and physical warfare as ongoing, and prejudice against Christians as widespread.

Methods

Using data collected in the spring of 2023, we explore the extreme politics of apocalyptics when they are exposed to greater and lesser degrees of religious diversity.

Results

Contrary to the usual associations from the intergroup contact thesis, we find that apocalyptics exposed to diversity dig in with even more extreme orientations to politics – they display a greater need for chaos, more support for extreme groups, and more support for potentially using violence to reclaim America.

Conclusions

Apocalyptics view American politics and society as being at the breaking point and their negative reactions to diverse others may just push the US past that point.

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Outgroup Avoidance

Avery Lord — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 22:04:55 +0000

Outgroup Avoidance Avery Lord Tue, 06/16/2026 - 16:04

Outgroup Avoidance

By: Chagai Weiss, Alexandra Siegel, Alexandra Scacco

Abstract:

Encouraging engagement with outgroup perspectives is a popular strategy to improve inter
group relations. But in deeply divided societies, individuals often actively avoid outgroup
members. In a Facebook field experiment, we embedded Palestinian posts in Jewish Israelis’
Facebook timelines for a period of 14 days. We find no effect on attitudes toward the outgroup
and a modest decrease in subsequent consumption of outgroup content, a pattern we attribute
to participants’ avoidance of constructive engagement. To better understand this avoidance, we
conducted a set of survey-embedded behavioral tasks. Results suggest that outgroup avoidance
online is widespread, associated with outgroup prejudice, explained by feelings of discomfort,
anger, mistrust in outgroups, and pessimism, and challenging to overcome. Our findings indicate that avoidance is a barrier to constructive intergroup engagement in naturalistic settings,
rendering many interventions that may be effective in controlled environments difficult to implement or scale in practice.

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